The beginning of October brought a remarkable surge for Macau’s gaming industry, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) soaring to MOP5.5 billion (US$686 million) within the first five days. This represents the highest early-October total in over five years, as reported by JP Morgan. Despite the disruptions caused by Typhoon Matmo, Macau’s casinos witnessed packed gaming floors while hotel lobbies and transport terminals buzzed with activity, thanks to the onset of China’s Golden Week.
Golden Week is one of China’s most significant national holidays and traditionally marks a peak period for Macau’s tourism and gaming sectors. From October 1 to 5, more than 790,000 visitors entered the city, highlighting robust consumer confidence and a strong interest in gaming tourism. On just one day, October 4, Macau recorded 191,176 arrivals. However, the typhoon’s impact was felt the following day, with numbers dropping to 113,051, as flight cancellations and ferry delays occurred. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian hailed this as the “best Golden Week performance in over five years,” noting that while year-on-year growth was modest at +3%, it was due to 2024 already having set an exceptionally high benchmark.
The extended holiday period this year offers additional opportunities for growth. Golden Week now spans eight days, one more than last year, allowing tourism demand to extend beyond the typical mid-week peak. According to JP Morgan, once the storm dissipates, casino visitation and spending are expected to bounce back, potentially creating a “stronger tail demand” effect. Analysts anticipate average daily GGR in the second week of October to reach approximately MOP750 million, showing mid-to-high teens growth year-on-year. This forecasted 30% drop compared to the first week is notably smaller than the usual 40% decline observed following peak periods, indicating a steady recovery trajectory for Macau.
Looking at the broader picture, Macau’s gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and potential for long-term growth. JP Morgan maintains its full-month projection, anticipating total GGR to hit MOP23 billion, an 11–13% increase compared to the previous year, marking the highest monthly result since 2019. Furthermore, they predict sustained double-digit GGR growth into the first quarter of 2026, fueled by consistent demand from mainland China visitors and enhanced travel connections.
As visitor confidence rebounds and resorts diversify their entertainment offerings beyond gaming, analysts foresee a sharp rise in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in the coming months. The positive performance during Golden Week is a testament to Macau’s recovery since the pandemic, a period when the casino industry grappled with border restrictions and dwindling visitor numbers. Now, even amid challenging global economic conditions and adverse weather, Macau’s gaming sector is showing signs of strong resurgence.
Operators are keenly observing the remainder of Golden Week to see if the favorable trends continue. Should the momentum persist, October 2025 could emerge as the strongest month for Macau casinos in six years, reinforcing the view that despite storms, Macau’s gaming industry is back on a robust growth path. The resilience showcased by the city’s casinos amid such disruptions highlights the enduring appeal and strength of Macau as a leading global gaming destination.
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