In October 2025, prediction markets have become a global phenomenon, generating trading volumes that exceed $2 billion. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are at the forefront of this surge, attracting significant investments, including a hefty $2 billion stake from the Intercontinental Exchange, valuing Polymarket at an impressive $8 billion. However, despite this global momentum, the Philippines remains a challenging environment for these markets, as they hit significant legal barriers.
According to Marie Antonette “Tonet” Quiogue, a gaming law expert from Arden Consult, prediction markets are considered illegal under Philippine law. She describes these markets as a groundbreaking tool for forecasting and investment that have taken root in many parts of the world. Yet, she emphasizes that in the Philippines, the legal framework categorically defines these activities as gambling if they involve any element of chance. “In the Philippines, not all bets on the future are ones you’re legally allowed to make,” she notes.
Under Philippine law, gambling is described as placing money on an outcome that involves any degree of chance. This definition effectively encompasses prediction markets, making any such activity illegal unless authorized by the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR). Quiogue pointed out that to date, PAGCOR has not licensed any prediction market platforms. She warned that operating a real-money prediction market without PAGCOR’s authorization constitutes running an illegal gambling operation within the country.
In contrast to how prediction markets are regulated in the United States, where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) treats them as financial instruments, the Philippines lacks a similar legal framework. Quiogue highlighted that the Philippines does not have a legal concept of an ‘event futures contract’ under its securities or commodities laws. As a result, prediction markets cannot register with the Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as trading exchanges for event contracts because the necessary legal provisions are absent.
The lack of a financial instrument framework complicates the situation further. Quiogue explained that according to civil law, gambling contracts are considered void and unenforceable. This means that a successful bettor in a prediction market cannot demand payment through legal channels, nor can the platform legally recover losses from participants. This legal standpoint severely undermines the potential for prediction markets to operate effectively in the Philippines.
Political betting, in particular, is a significant area of concern. Quiogue stressed that betting on Philippine election outcomes is strictly prohibited and illegal under election law. The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) has publicly discouraged even informal betting pools or casual wagers on election results. The only permissible form of prediction market would be a no-stakes version, which removes any real money from the equation. However, Quiogue remarked that without real wagers, such markets lose the motivational aspect that makes them effective and engaging.
Despite these stringent regulations, there might be hope for a shift in the future. Quiogue mentioned the possibility of reform, suggesting that if the Philippine SEC were to establish a domestic commodities or futures market, there could be room to redefine certain event contracts as financial instruments instead of bets. However, this change would necessitate new legislation and a significant shift in the current regulatory framework.
The question remains whether the Philippines will choose to adapt its legal landscape to align with global trends in prediction markets or continue to stand apart from this rapidly evolving financial sector. The current strict interpretation of gambling laws undeniably limits the country’s participation in a burgeoning financial frontier.
Critics of the current legal stance argue that by not embracing prediction markets, the Philippines misses out on opportunities for economic growth and innovation. Proponents of market liberalization suggest that prediction markets could serve as valuable tools for economic forecasting and decision-making, potentially benefiting sectors beyond just gaming. They advocate for a reevaluation of existing regulations to create a more conducive environment for these markets to thrive.
On the other hand, those in favor of maintaining the status quo caution against the potential risks associated with legalizing prediction markets. They emphasize the importance of regulating gambling activities to prevent fraud, protect consumers, and maintain social order. The concern is that without strict oversight, prediction markets could lead to increased gambling addiction and financial instability among participants.
As the global financial landscape continues to evolve, the Philippines faces a critical decision that will determine its place in the world of prediction markets. Whether it will choose to adapt its laws to foster innovation or remain on the sidelines of this growing industry is a matter of significant debate among policymakers and industry stakeholders. As the debate continues, all eyes are on the Philippine regulators and lawmakers to see how they will navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the rise of prediction markets.
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