On December 18, 2025, Congressman Abe Hamadeh from Arizona’s 8th district formally requested that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigate the recently announced collaboration between CNN and the prediction market operator Kalshi. This partnership has raised alarms due to its potential to undermine both U.S. market stability and national security. In a letter addressed to Acting Chairwoman Caroline D. Pham, Hamadeh expressed concerns that the deal poses significant threats to market integrity, democratic stability, and American national security.
Hamadeh elaborated that constituents have voiced their fears regarding a media company, known for its partisan manipulation, gaining the capacity to affect and profit from geopolitical events in real time. He described the partnership as “not merely inappropriate; it is outright dangerous,” emphasizing that CNN’s editorial influence, combined with Kalshi’s tradable markets, introduces a structural conflict of interest. He argued that CNN could potentially shape public perception and news cycles around events that Kalshi lists as tradable markets – such as elections, wars, foreign policy crises, and domestic instability.
He further stated, “No other major media outlet has attempted such a partnership, and for good reason: it creates a built-in structural conflict of interest that allows an influential news organization or foreign adversaries to shape outcomes for financial or competitive advantage.”
Raising legal concerns under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), Hamadeh referred to Section 5c(c)(5)(C), which mandates the Commission to prohibit contracts linked to war, gaming, or those against the public interest. He argued that the CNN-Kalshi partnership falls within this category. To illustrate the risks, he cited reports of Kalshi markets allowing bets on sensitive issues like “whether Palestinians in Gaza would suffer mass starvation” and “when Israel will bomb Gaza, bomb the West Bank, or annex either.”
“The situation is chilling, and I have questions,” he wrote, urging the Commission to clarify “what actions the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [is] taking to review the Kalshi–CNN partnership under Section 5c(c)(5)(C), particularly regarding risks of informational conflicts of interest and event manipulation.” Hamadeh has given the CFTC 30 days to respond with a detailed assessment and outline the Commission’s intended actions. He stressed the importance of examining whether CNN’s editorial influence over politically sensitive topics, combined with Kalshi’s event contracts, makes these markets “contrary to the public interest.”
Moreover, Hamadeh reminded Pham of the CFTC’s mission to protect U.S. market integrity, warning that “allowing CNN, a network already viewed by many Americans as a propagandistic actor, to operate inside a live prediction market creates unacceptable national security and governance vulnerabilities.” The Congressman is adamant that the Commission needs to evaluate whether the partnership creates opportunities for foreign or domestic actors to influence U.S. politics, economics, or national security outcomes for financial profit.
In response, Kalshi swiftly countered Congressman Hamadeh’s allegations via a public statement, clarifying their position. They stated, “With all due respect, you’re accusing Kalshi of things we don’t do. The markets you list (e.g. ‘Will Israel strike Gaza’) are on a competitor’s site, not Kalshi’s. And Kalshi rules prohibit CNN employees from trading on any contract where CNN would be a source of information.”
A closer examination of Kalshi’s platform seems to support their claim. A search for “Israel” reveals several contracts, but none tied to military actions. Instead, the questions focus on political and policy outcomes, such as “will the US halt military aid to Israel?” or “who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?” Despite its defense, Kalshi continues to face scrutiny from multiple state regulators, who argue that some of its sports contracts violate local sports betting laws.
The debate surrounding the CNN-Kalshi partnership highlights broader issues about the intersection of media influence and financial markets. Some industry experts argue that prediction markets, when properly regulated, can enhance market efficiency by aggregating diverse information sources into a single, tradable forecast. However, the potential for misuse and manipulation cannot be ignored, particularly when combined with a major media outlet’s ability to influence public opinion.
Critics of Hamadeh’s position suggest that the Congressman’s concerns may be overstated or politically motivated. They argue that the partnership could provide valuable insights into public sentiment and future events, benefiting policymakers and investors alike. However, others support his caution, emphasizing the need for stringent oversight to prevent the exploitation of sensitive information for profit.
In conclusion, the unfolding situation with CNN and Kalshi serves as a crucial test for the regulatory framework governing prediction markets in the United States. The outcome of this investigation may set a precedent for how media organizations and financial market operators can collaborate without compromising market integrity or national security. As the deadline for the CFTC’s response approaches, stakeholders from various sectors will be watching closely to see how the Commission navigates this complex issue.
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