In a decisive move on December 2025, Poland’s president, Karol Nawrocki, vetoed a legislative proposal intended to raise the tax on gambling winnings from 10% to 15%. This proposal, initially passed by the Polish parliament earlier in the year, was part of a broader plan to enhance the country’s fiscal health. However, industry experts had expressed concerns that such a tax hike could inadvertently drive more players towards unlicensed, offshore gambling operators, undermining Poland’s regulated market.
The proposed legislation stipulated that winnings below PLN 2,280 (approximately USD 570) would remain tax-exempt, but larger payouts from sports betting, lotteries, and other gaming activities would face the increased tax rate. This potential change was designed to bolster public finances, yet faced criticism for potentially destabilizing an industry already subject to stringent regulations.
The president’s office explained that the veto was based on two primary concerns: maintaining the competitiveness of licensed operators and safeguarding the health of Poland’s regulated gambling market. Officials argued that higher taxes on winnings could make domestic operators less appealing compared to offshore sites, which are not required to withhold taxes. This shift could weaken the channelisation strategy, a policy aimed at guiding players toward regulated systems, potentially reducing tax revenue over time rather than increasing it.
Additionally, the presidency labeled the proposed tax increase as a short-term solution to deeper financial issues. Nawrocki’s stance suggested that a comprehensive review of Poland’s tax policies and spending priorities would be a more sustainable approach to addressing fiscal challenges.
Industry representatives welcomed the veto, expressing relief that an additional tax burden had been averted. Poland’s gambling sector is already heavily taxed, with licensed bookmakers subject to a 12% tax on turnover rather than on gross gaming revenue—a model that is unusual compared to other EU countries and is criticized for squeezing operator margins and limiting competitive offerings.
The president’s decision also touches upon a broader debate regarding Poland’s persistent grey market in gambling. Despite aggressive enforcement measures since the 2017 overhaul of the Gambling Act, including a blacklist of prohibited sites and restrictions on financial transactions and marketing, it is estimated that over 20% of online gambling in Poland still occurs through unlicensed channels, resulting in significant financial outflow.
Against this backdrop, leading voices within the regulated sector cautioned that increasing the tax on winnings would further advantage offshore platforms. Players, they argued, would likely be tempted to opt for tax-free winnings available through unlicensed sites, regardless of regulatory efforts to block access to these platforms.
The veto may signal a strategic shift by aligning regulatory and tax policies more closely, reinforcing the notion that these elements must work in tandem rather than as isolated measures. It also arrives amid increasing scrutiny of Poland’s gambling framework, characterized by a hybrid model. The state-owned Totalizator Sportowy holds a monopoly on online casinos and lotteries, while private companies are permitted to operate sports betting under strict licensing conditions and a high turnover-based tax.
While this model has ensured consistent revenue growth for the regulated market, it has also sparked concerns about unmet demand, which offshore operators exploit. At the European Economic Congress, stakeholders highlighted that since the 2017 reforms, an estimated PLN 230 billion (around USD 57 billion) has been lost to unlicensed offshore operators, depriving Poland of substantial tax revenue.
Calls for reform, advocating for a more inclusive licensing model with moderate taxation, are likely to intensify following the president’s decision. This development underscores the tension between immediate budgetary pressures and the need for long-term, structural adjustments in gambling policy.
Despite the veto, Poland’s fiscal challenges remain. Similar to other European nations, Poland faces growing social expenditure and an electorate cautious about sweeping tax hikes. Specific tax increases on activities like gambling are often seen as more politically feasible. However, Nawrocki’s decision reflects a deeper calculation that taxing winners might be politically and economically disadvantageous.
While the government retains the option to propose a revised version of the tax plan, and theoretically, the parliament could attempt to override the veto with a three-fifths majority, there currently appears to be limited political momentum for such actions. Instead, this situation might catalyze a more nuanced discussion regarding the objectives of gambling taxation—whether it’s primarily about revenue collection, harm reduction, industrial policy, or a combination of these factors.
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