Analyst Projects Revenue Above Internal Estimates
Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino has stated that Wynn Resorts’ upcoming casino project in the United Arab Emirates is positioned to exceed the company’s current revenue forecasts. The development, known as Wynn Al Marjan Island, is slated to open in September 2027 and is expected to be the first integrated resort in the Middle East to operate a licensed commercial casino.
The positive outlook comes as Wynn Resorts shares have fallen approximately 37% year-to-date in 2026. Despite this decline, Wolfe Research believes the stock could rise as much as 60% by the end of 2027, driven primarily by the performance of the new Middle Eastern asset. Supino’s assessment suggests that the UAE project will serve as a significant catalyst for the company’s financial recovery, independent of its existing operations in other markets.
Financial Projections and Valuation Metrics
Wynn’s projections from December 2025 indicate that the Al Marjan Island property could generate up to $1.66 billion in annual gaming revenue. Adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are expected to range between $390 million and $570 million annually. These figures form the basis for the analyst’s valuation of the asset.
Supino values Wynn’s 40% stake in the development at approximately $48 per share. The total estimated worth of the Al Marjan Island project is $5.7 billion. Wolfe Research’s $128 price target reflects 8.5 times the projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA, plus the calculated value of the UAE investment. This valuation model separates the UAE asset from the company’s broader portfolio to isolate its specific contribution to shareholder value.
The firm noted that industry projections suggest the UAE could eventually host four or five casino resorts. Previous estimates for the region’s gross gaming revenue stood at $3 billion to $5 billion annually. Supino believes Wynn’s entry into the market will help realize these figures, potentially exceeding the lower end of that previous estimate range.
Construction Progress and Regional Strategic Context
The development is located off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah. Construction updates in early 2026 confirmed progress on the main tower, guest accommodations, and supporting infrastructure. Wynn announced in March that work continued following a brief pause related to regional conflicts involving Iran. The resumption of construction indicates that the project is on track for its scheduled opening despite external disruptions.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced uncertainty into the expansion timeline. However, the location offers significant strategic advantages for the gaming industry. Approximately one-third of the world’s population is within a four-hour flight of the UAE. Additionally, Knight Frank reports that luxury rooms will account for 43% of the UAE’s planned additions to its hotel inventory through 2030, indicating a strong demand for high-end hospitality services in the region.
For context, Singapore currently hosts two major integrated resorts, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa. Supino identified pressure on Wynn’s near-term financial performance in Macau, where the company owns two integrated resorts, as a factor in the current stock valuation. The UAE project is viewed as a key driver for future stock recovery, offering a new revenue stream that is not subject to the same market pressures currently affecting the company’s Asian operations.
Why It Matters
This development signals a shift in Wynn Resorts' growth strategy, with the UAE project now viewed as a primary driver for stock recovery rather than a secondary asset. The projected revenue of up to $1.66 billion annually could significantly offset current performance pressures in Macau. For investors and industry observers, the analyst's valuation of the 40% stake at $48 per share provides a concrete benchmark for the asset's potential impact on overall company value.
Sarah Thompson is an editorial byline used by Casino No Deposits for industry news coverage. Articles published under this byline are summarised from reporting by licensed gambling industry news sources and produced with AI assistance, then published against our editorial rules on accuracy, sourcing and tone. They are not first-hand reporting and do not contain personal player accounts. Our full process, including how bonus listings and ratings are maintained separately by our team, is documented in how we review casinos: https://casinonodeposits.com/how-we-review-casinos/
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