Macau is anticipated to lead in gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth among major gambling hubs in 2026, outpacing both Singapore and Las Vegas, according to a recent analysis by financial services firm Morgan Stanley. The forecast suggests a 6% increase in GGR for Macau, contrasting with approximately 1% growth expected in Singapore and Las Vegas. This projection holds significant implications for the competitive landscape and regulatory environment within these jurisdictions.
In 2025, Macau’s GGR experienced a 9.1% increase, reaching MOP247.40 billion (approximately USD 30.63 billion), according to official data. However, despite a promising revenue outlook, Morgan Stanley has tempered expectations regarding Macau’s profit growth. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are predicted to rise by only 2% in 2026, indicating potential financial strain within the industry and underscoring the challenges posed by ongoing cost pressures.
Morgan Stanley’s analysts have identified several structural challenges impacting Macau’s profitability, primarily stemming from the market’s focus on premium mass players. The substantial reinvestment requirements, including incentives and promotions targeting mid-tier customers, are highlighted as a significant factor eroding profit margins. Additionally, the anticipated deceleration in GGR growth in the latter half of 2026, coupled with persistent promotional allowances and non-gaming expenses, contributes to a cautious outlook. These non-gaming costs are partially attributable to the commitments made by Macau’s six concessionaires as part of their 10-year gaming licenses initiated in January 2023.
Given these factors, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its outlook on Macau’s gaming industry from “attractive” to “in-line,” projecting lower year-on-year GGR growth starting in May, with potential negative EBITDA growth during the year’s second and third quarters.
Turning to Singapore, Morgan Stanley’s report includes an analysis of the nation’s two-casino market, consisting of Resorts World Sentosa, managed by Genting Singapore Ltd, and Marina Bay Sands, operated by Las Vegas Sands Corp. While gaming volumes in Singapore are expected to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2026, largely due to the enduring success of Marina Bay Sands and the introduction of new attractions at Resorts World Sentosa, profit growth is unlikely to follow suit.
Despite the anticipated rise in gaming activity, Genting Singapore is not expected to significantly increase its market share against Marina Bay Sands, maintaining the status quo from previous years. Furthermore, the unusually high hold rates reported by Marina Bay Sands in 2025 are anticipated to normalize in 2026. Morgan Stanley predicts that this normalization will offset any volume growth, resulting in a flat GGR for the Singapore market and a projected 1% decline in EBITDA year-on-year in 2026.
This analysis underscores the broader challenges faced by the gambling industry in navigating regulatory landscapes, cost structures, and competitive pressures across different markets. Operators in Macau are particularly impacted by the need to balance reinvestment strategies with regulatory commitments under their current licensing agreements. Meanwhile, Singapore’s operators must contend with competitive dynamics and market share stability concerns.
Looking ahead, the industry will need to closely monitor these developments, as Macau’s regulatory environment and economic conditions may necessitate strategic adjustments for operators. The implementation of cost management strategies and the exploration of sustainable growth avenues will be critical in maintaining competitiveness and ensuring compliance with evolving regulatory requirements. As 2026 progresses, the market response to these challenges will provide further insight into the resilience and adaptability of the global casino industry.
Erik Agary is a seasoned writer at True Games Reviews, specializing in gaming, casino games, and interactive entertainment. With a passion for all things digital, Erik dives deep into the latest trends and developments in the gaming world, offering insightful reviews and detailed analysis. His expertise spans across multiple gaming platforms, ensuring comprehensive coverage that resonates with both novice and experienced gamers alike.
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