Jefferies analysts have forecasted a 5.3 percent increase in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2026, following a robust performance in 2025. Last year, Macau’s GGR reached MOP247.4 billion ($30.86 billion), reflecting a 9.1 percent rise compared to 2024, surpassing both Jefferies’ forecast of 8.9 percent and the market expectation of 9.2 percent. This anticipated growth is significant as it underscores Macau’s ongoing recovery and strategic importance in the global gambling market. Analysts point to comparisons of year-over-year GGR through May and a government revenue target of MOP236 billion, which they deem conservative. For 2026, projections place Macau’s GGR at MOP260.6 billion, with VIP gaming volumes anticipated to grow by 2 percent to MOP69.34 billion and mass market revenue expected to rise by 6.6 percent to MOP191.26 billion.
Visitor Numbers and Market Dynamics
Macau is expected to witness an increase in visitors between 2026 and 2027, surpassing previous records. Analysts predict a total of 41.98 million visitors, with the majority, approximately 30.43 million, coming from mainland China. The influx from Hong Kong is also anticipated to grow slightly from 7.32 million in 2025 to 7.46 million. Additionally, arrivals from regions outside Asia are projected to increase from 3.72 million to 4.09 million. Despite this rise in visitor numbers, the average expenditure per visitor is expected to stabilize around MOP6,207 ($774). This stability is attributed to Macau’s ability to attract visitors who tend to stay longer and spend more, due to the operators’ expansion into new markets and government-sponsored international marketing initiatives.
Operator Performance and Market Share
In terms of operator performance, Sands China is forecasted to lead, with expected revenues of $8.35 billion in 2026, marking a 2 percent increase from the previous estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025. Sands China has gained market share, now holding approximately 24.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. Galaxy Entertainment Group follows, expected to generate HK$53.28 billion ($6.65 billion), a 1 percent rise, with a market share increase to 22.1 percent. MGM China ranks third, targeting HK$36.69 billion ($4.58 billion) in revenue, alongside a market share gain to 16.5 percent. On the other hand, Wynn Resorts and SJM Holdings have experienced declines in market share, falling to 12.2 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively. Jefferies maintains a ‘buy’ rating for Galaxy, Sands, MGM, and Wynn, while holding on SJM.
Strategic Expansions and Developments
Galaxy Entertainment Group is set on achieving a 20-22 percent market share by 2027, propelled by the rollout of Smart Tables as part of its Phase 4 expansion. This extension will introduce 1,500 additional guest rooms, 120 new retail outlets, a Water Resort, and 400 new gaming tables, along with a 5,000-seat theatre designed to enhance VIP and premium mass market appeal. Galaxy’s VIP gross gaming revenue increased by 19 percent to HK$11.02 billion, while mass gaming revenue rose by 9 percent to $39.87 billion. The expansion of Galaxy Macau is anticipated to deliver an HK$48.48 billion GGR, an 11 percent annual growth.
Sands China is prioritizing its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over profit margins. The company is targeting a $2.7 billion run rate, with significant contributions expected from its Venetian and Londoner properties in Macau. The Londoner alone experienced a notable increase in revenue to $3.17 billion, a 19 percent rise from the previous year. However, competitive pressures could potentially reduce GGR by up to 20 percent, a marginal decrease from 2025’s 22 percent.
MGM China is focusing on enhancing its premium mass market segment. The development of Alpha Club, located on the peninsula, adds 27 tables along with dining and lounge facilities. The expansion of Mansion One in Cotai, set to include 63 suites by mid-2026, is part of MGM’s broader strategy. MGM Cotai’s GGR is projected to increase by 6 percent to HK$23.05 billion, while MGM Macau is expected to see an 8 percent rise to HK$16.3 billion.
Future Developments and Considerations
Wynn Resorts is working on the completion of its Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace ahead of the Chinese New Year, in addition to renovations at Wynn Tower. Meanwhile, Wynn Palace’s Event Center is awaiting regulatory approval, with a potential opening in early 2028. SJM Holdings is planning an expansion of the Hotel Lisboa, adding 7,504 square meters and up to 80 new gaming tables. This expansion is part of SJM’s efforts to maintain its competitive edge amid market shifts.
The gaming industry in Macau continues to navigate regulatory challenges and market competition. As operators expand and adapt their offerings, the market’s response will be critical in determining future dynamics. Regulatory reviews and changes, alongside competitive pressures, are expected to shape the market landscape in the coming years. The implementation timeline for various expansions and strategic initiatives will be closely monitored by investors and stakeholders, as these developments are pivotal to sustaining Macau’s position as a leading global gaming hub.
Erik Agary is a seasoned writer at True Games Reviews, specializing in gaming, casino games, and interactive entertainment. With a passion for all things digital, Erik dives deep into the latest trends and developments in the gaming world, offering insightful reviews and detailed analysis. His expertise spans across multiple gaming platforms, ensuring comprehensive coverage that resonates with both novice and experienced gamers alike.
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