Proposed Tax Hike Threatens Brazil’s Betting Industry Stability

The National Association of Gaming and Lotteries (ANJL) has voiced strong opposition against a recent legislative proposal by the PT leader and federal deputy Lindbergh Farias, which seeks to increase the tax rate on sports betting and online lottery operators from 12% to an alarming 24%. ANJL argues that this tax hike is both technically flawed and poorly timed, potentially threatening the stability of Brazil’s burgeoning regulated betting industry.

A Policy Deemed Flawed and Poorly Timed

ANJL contends that the proposed tax increase lacks a solid economic foundation and comes at a critical juncture. Brazil’s regulated market is still in its infancy, developing under a newly established regulatory framework. The association warns that such a steep increase in taxation could drive operators away from the legal market, inadvertently promoting illegal gambling activities. This shift could ultimately lead to a decrease in tax revenues rather than the anticipated increase.

The association recalls that a similar tax proposal was previously withdrawn by the federal government after extensive debates in Congress, which reached a consensus that the measure was impractical. Its reintroduction, they argue, undermines efforts to create a stable, regulated, and transparent market. “Doubling the tax on gross gaming revenue threatens the sustainability of licensed operators,” ANJL stated, “and risks undoing the progress made through regulatory modernization in the country.”

Debunking Public Health Justifications

ANJL also disputes the rationale behind the proposal, which suggests that higher taxation would address public health issues linked to gambling addiction. Deputy Farias had cited an estimated 2 million Brazilians as problem gamblers, a figure ANJL describes as “fictional and unsupported by official statistics.” According to the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS), only 3,892 cases were recorded involving individuals seeking treatment for gambling addiction between 2022 and September 2025.

While acknowledging the importance of responsible gaming, ANJL emphasizes that the solution lies in education, prevention, and regulation rather than punitive taxation. Licensed operators, they note, already implement a variety of player protection tools, including deposit limits, self-exclusion options, educational campaigns, and risk monitoring systems to ensure safe and responsible gaming.

Threats to a Nascent Regulated Market

The association foresees that a sudden increase in taxation would discourage investment, reduce competition, and drive players to unlicensed platforms lacking consumer protection and anti-fraud measures. Such a scenario could result in diminished government revenue and increased consumer risk exposure. “The focus should be on enhancing regulation and oversight, not on fiscal measures that endanger the sector’s growth,” asserted ANJL.

A Call for Evidence-Based Policymaking

In conclusion, ANJL advocates for public policy shaped by technical analysis and real data, rather than political expediency. The association calls for enhanced dialogue between lawmakers and the gaming industry to develop balanced solutions for player protection, fair taxation, and the sustainability of the legal market. By dismissing the proposed bill as “technically flawed and socially unfounded,” ANJL reiterates its commitment to fostering a responsible, transparent, and sustainable gaming environment, which aligns with Brazil’s broader economic development goals.

This complex situation highlights the diverse challenges faced by Brazil’s betting industry as it strives to establish a robust regulatory framework. While the intention behind increasing taxes may stem from a desire to raise public revenue and address social concerns, it presents significant risks to a market that is still finding its footing. As debates continue, it becomes crucial for stakeholders to strike a balance that safeguards both the economic interests of the sector and the well-being of its participants.

Differing Perspectives on Taxation Impacts

While ANJL voices strong opposition to the tax proposal, other stakeholders argue that increased taxation could bring much-needed revenue to the government and help address broader social issues. Proponents of the tax hike suggest that additional funds could be allocated to public health programs and initiatives aimed at mitigating gambling-related harms.

However, critics contend that without a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics, such measures could backfire, discouraging legal operations and inadvertently encouraging illegal alternatives. This tension underscores the complexity of regulating an industry that must balance economic growth with social responsibility.

Ultimately, the future of Brazil’s betting industry hinges on the ability of policymakers to navigate these challenges and implement regulations that foster both market stability and public welfare. As the sector continues to evolve, ongoing dialogue and collaboration between government authorities, industry leaders, and public health experts will be essential in crafting policies that support a thriving, sustainable, and socially responsible betting environment.